For a political junkie like me, this is the best that it gets. For a Democrat, I don't think I have ever anticipated an election quite like this one.
This year we may have the perfect political storm gathering - one most have never witnessed. After impressive wins two years ago for the Democrats, this election cycle will bring additional wins for the Dems. Such a situation has only presented itself twice in the last 100 years (once for the GOP and once for the Dems - neither in my lifetime).
In the Senate the GOP is cursed by the math of this election and cursed by the politics of it as well. Thirty-five seats are up for election this time, and 23 belong to the GOP while only 12 are Dems. This alone would make the situation very tough for the GOP as a whole. But add to it the last eight years of George Bush and his extreme unpopularity along with the economic mess and you see a tidal wave hitting these 23 GOP senators. At this point only one Dem - Landrieu of Louisiana - is in any real trouble and she will probably hold her seat.
On the GOP side, we will see probably 7-9 seats lost by the GOP. Even Mitch McConnell of Kentucky is in a tough re-election battle. When the minority leader of the GOP from Kentucky is in trouble, one wonders how deep the losses could be on the GOP side.
Right now I would predict that the Dems will win seats in Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. I would also give the Dems Alaska unless Stevens is aquitted in his fraud trial (and then he may still lose). At that point the Dems and GOP would split the rest and I think right now a seven seat pick-up seems safe. The next 17 days will be important.
In the House we will probably see 20-30 seats picked up. There are 32 retirements from the House this year and 26 belong to GOP seats. Again this is a bigger hill for the GOP to climb, although some of these 26 seats are in safe GOP districts. My guess is that the Dems will put any extra money and resources into Senate races trying to get to the magic 60 seats and as such the wins in the House will be on the lower end of what people are guessing. I would guess right now a 20-seat pickup in the House for the Dems. That would put the House at 256 Dems and 179 GOP members.
The Presidential race has been the most interesting race in my lifetime. It looks like Obama peaked or plateaued this last week and the race has started to show sign of either stagnating or tightening. I would say that by early to mid next week we will know where the race is going.
While the national polls seem to be stabalizing, the electoral college map looks very promising for Obama. I count 286 electoral votes that seem pretty solid right now. That leave about six states that will probably split between Obama and McCain. However to win, McCain must win all six of these "swing" states and peel a couple from Obama. I personally do not understand McCain's strategies right now. He is still campaigning in Pennsylvania. Note to the McCain camp: "You have lost Pennsylvania". McCain needs to pull everything (quietly) from PA and move it to Ohio, Florida and Virgina. If McCain losses any of these three states he is done. Also, stay out of Indiana and North Carolina. If you can start to create some momentum in Ohio and Florida, the national media will pick up on it and you can hope that changes the national numbers a point or two and as such these two states might fall into your column.
Personally I think it is over and I think Obama captures around 320 EVs. I think we wins Virginia and Ohio. I think Obama losses Florida, North Carolina and Indiana. But if Obama wins Michigan and Pennsylvania (which will happen) there are numerous EV scenarios to 270 for him. There are almost none for McCain. If you throw in Virginia or Ohio for Obama and McCain is DONE.
Right now my predictions for some swing (close) states:
Ohio - close but Obama
Michigan - Obama
Pennsylvania - Obama
Colorado - Obama, but somewhat close
Florida - McCain by about 3 points
Virginia - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
Minnesota - Obama
Wisconsin - Obama
New Mexico - Obama
Nevada - Obama
West Virginia - McCain
North Dakota - McCain
More to come ...
