Come on Wesley Clark

Well the dumb comments keep on coming. This time they were on the Democratic side. I guess the hope that this campaign will not be a bloodbath was too much to hope for.

Today on "Face the Nation" Wesley Clark not only touched, but grabbed, the third rail of this political season as he made comments about McCain's war record. While he prefaced the comments with the standard respect about McCain's service to the country, he went on to say “I don’t think getting in a fighter plane and getting shot down is a qualification to become president."

Wow.

I don't see how this comment is any different than Charlie Black's comment that a terrorist attack would benefit the McCain campaign. While both comments may play to an underlying truth (McCain's credentials on terrorism or that McCain's war record does not give him foreign policy experience). But these arguments for and against McCain's candidacy can be made in a more civil manner.

I am disappointed with Clark's comments. Wesley Clark should apologize to McCain.

The GOP's True Colors of Just a Couple Idiots?

The McCain campaign had to deal with two interesting comments - one from in the campaign and one from a conservative giant in Washington politics. The response from the McCain campaign tells us as much as the comments themselves.

The first comment was from Charlie Black, a senior member of the McCain camp. He was talking about the campaign to Fortune magazine. In the interview, Black started discussing the murder of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto last December. He claimed that Bhutto's death was good for the McCain campaign because McCain could discuss the issue and the American people could see that McCain had foreign policy experience.

I am glad the murder of a Democratic reformer trying to pull Pakistan to Democracy is a "good thing" for McCain. Interestingly enough, McCain made similar comments himself at that time.

To be fair, I was also upset at Senator Clinton for her comments at the time which also seemed to politicize the tragedy.

But as if that was not enough, Black then decided to pull out the 9/11 card and play it. He then went on to say that if there was another terrorist attack on the nation, said attack would be good for the McCain campaign.

I think back to that horrible Tuesday in September when those planes hit the Towers and the Pentagon and those brave passengers helped crash the plane that was possibly heading for the White House or Capital Building. I think of those 200 some people that jumped to their deaths from the Towers because that was the better alternative. I think of the young man on the phone with the 911 operator begging her to rescue him as he was "too young to die" and the last words he uttered were "Oh, God" as the Tower collapsed and he knew he was seconds from death.

This kind of attack would be "good" for the McCain campaign?

Yes, McCain came out and said that he did not agree with Black's comments. But he did not fire him. Charlie Black is still a senior campaign adviser to John McCain.

So much for not politicizing 9/11 during this campaign.

I guess that just leaves the race issue. Oh wait ...

Then just a few days later we have another telling "gaffe" from Grover Norquist. In case you have not heard of Norquist, I suggest you Google his name. He is a leader in the neo-conservative movement and someone who McCain desperately needs to help him hold the far right wing of his party together. He has been a conservative giant in the GOP for years.

When comparing Obama with some of the recent prior Democratic nominees, he compared Obama to John Kerry by saying he was nothing more than "John Kerry with a tan". Huh? How is that not a race-based comment? When asked about it, Norguist's aides said that of course he was just saying that Obama was a different iteration of John Kerry and the "with a tan" comment did not refer to Obama's race. Right ...

Again, McCain knows not to upset Norquist so there was no condemnation of the comment. I know that McCain is an honorable person in this area. He has adopted children of different races. He was smeared in the South Carolina primaries by supporters of Bush eight years ago in some of the most ugly television ads playing to race because of his children. So why does McCain not take the high road and come out and say "I know this will hurt me in my party, but I deplore the comments of Norquist. Race will not be part of this campaign and I will speak out every time it becomes part of the campaign"?

I feel sorry for McCain in a way. Here is an honorable, war hero that will be redefined by this campaign. He will be defined by the ugly words of those he needs in order to win in November. It is too bad.

Today's Newsweek Poll

Newsweek released a poll today which showed Obama with a 15 point lead over McCain. Wow, I guess the race is over. Give the White House to the Dems.

Not so fast...

This is an interesting poll, no doubt. But I do not believe that at this point Obama has a 15 point lead on McCain. It is worth pointing out that while most national polls show Obama with a about a 6 point lead on McCain, this poll was of registered voters only. Perhaps that reflects the large number of new voters that the Dems registered during the primary season. Will they vote?

The poll was also taken at a perfect time for Obama. He is just peaking with his post-nomination bubble. However the poll will not reflect what voters think about his decision to not take federal campaign funds or his view that we should not drill on the OCS - a view only held by about 30% of Americans paying over $4 for gasoline.

So, is the poll worthless? Nope. There is some real interesting stuff in there if you raise the hood on the poll and peak in.

The poll asked if one was satisfied with the direction American is taking. Only 14% said they were - tied with the lowest response to that question ever.

That probably means a vast majority of Americans seek change. When asked who is a better agent of change (something both candidates have campaigned on), Obama is picked by 51% and McCain 27%. This should be very sobering to the McCain camp.

When asked do you view yourself as (or lean toward) being a Democrat - 55% said they do. Only 36% of the respondents said they were (or leaned toward) the GOP. This is another sobering statistic for the GOP. However there have been more Dems than GOP in the past and the Dems have been beaten as the GOP has mounted very successful "get out the vote" campaigns. It does not matter how many say they are Dems or GOP voters if they don't vote. One also needs to look at how organized the party is and how enthused the voters are.

Now that Hillary's loss in the primary fight is over, how is Obama doing with these former Clinton backers who threatened to defect the party and support McCain in large numbers?

This is probably the most important part of the poll.

Of prior Clinton supporters:

69% now back Obama and 18% McCain
70% have a favorable view of Obama and 18% have an unfavorable view

Part of this is that Obama now enjoys the support of 54% of women and McCain only has the support of 33% of women.

With independents - a demographic that McCain must win in order to win the election - Obama has the support of 48% to 36% for McCain.

On favorable/unfavorable ratings:

Obama - 62% favorable - 26% unfavorable
McCain - 49% favorable - 37% unfavorable

This confuses me. I don't understand what is driving McCain's unfavorables. He won his party's nomination two months ago. No one has been running ads against him. His personal story as a war hero and maverick in the Senate should give him higher favorables. I can only assume he is getting pulled down with his party.

But I assume his favorables will will go up as he starts running ads and the press starts giving him some more attention.

Lastly, let's look at who is the best at solving problem "x" questions.

On the economy and jobs - the poll shows that Obama is favored 54% to McCain 29%
On energy policy - the poll shows Obama is favored 48% to McCain 34%
On the Iraq War - the poll shows Obama is favored 46% to McCain 40%

I think the energy numbers will tighten as gasoline prices come down (and they will before the election) and if Iraq continues to stay out of the news, that number will probably tighten as well.

As I said, this is an interesting poll because it shows some trends and answers some questions about Hillary voters. But there is no way we will see this election come down to a 15 point win for Obama. It will be much tighter than that.

Barack Obama Declines Federal Campaign Funds

Senator Obama announced that he will be turning down federal campaign financing for the general election. This will be the first time that federal money has not financed the general election campaign of a major party candidate since the system was set up after Watergate.

I am somewhat disappointed in Senator Obama.

I am not disappointed in the decision as a political one. I supported Hillary and she would have done it in a minute. She would have done so because it was a good political decision. But Hillary is known as a tough and smart politician. She wins political fights by creating clear "good guys" and "bad guys" and hammering away at the "bad guys" until they back down and she wins.

Senator Obama has created a brand for himself that says "I am different". I want to work with everyone. Washington is broken. Trust me.

But he did say that he would only use the $84 million given to him in the general campaign and now he is opting out. It damages his brand somewhat.

But the reality is that this was a smart decision. While he will get hammered for a couple days in the media (and probably longer at FOX) the American people will eventually forget the issue and then we are left with McCain spending $84 million protecting a core group of battleground states with no money to protect from (let alone launch) a 50-state campaign that Howard Dean and Barack Obama intend to run.

Already Obama is running television ads in states like Indiana, North Carolina and North Dakota. What's next, campaign stops in Salt Lake City? If Obama can make states like Virginia, Florida, Georgia and Indiana competitive, McCain is in more trouble than most believe he already is in.

I should be happy. One of my worries during the campaign and my fear of Hillary not getting the nomination was that Obama would be too soft to make some of these hard political decisions and would be too naive in his approach to the campaign. I could not stand for another John Kerry-like campaign. I guess we are starting to see another side of Obama.