Today's Newsweek Poll

Newsweek released a poll today which showed Obama with a 15 point lead over McCain. Wow, I guess the race is over. Give the White House to the Dems.

Not so fast...

This is an interesting poll, no doubt. But I do not believe that at this point Obama has a 15 point lead on McCain. It is worth pointing out that while most national polls show Obama with a about a 6 point lead on McCain, this poll was of registered voters only. Perhaps that reflects the large number of new voters that the Dems registered during the primary season. Will they vote?

The poll was also taken at a perfect time for Obama. He is just peaking with his post-nomination bubble. However the poll will not reflect what voters think about his decision to not take federal campaign funds or his view that we should not drill on the OCS - a view only held by about 30% of Americans paying over $4 for gasoline.

So, is the poll worthless? Nope. There is some real interesting stuff in there if you raise the hood on the poll and peak in.

The poll asked if one was satisfied with the direction American is taking. Only 14% said they were - tied with the lowest response to that question ever.

That probably means a vast majority of Americans seek change. When asked who is a better agent of change (something both candidates have campaigned on), Obama is picked by 51% and McCain 27%. This should be very sobering to the McCain camp.

When asked do you view yourself as (or lean toward) being a Democrat - 55% said they do. Only 36% of the respondents said they were (or leaned toward) the GOP. This is another sobering statistic for the GOP. However there have been more Dems than GOP in the past and the Dems have been beaten as the GOP has mounted very successful "get out the vote" campaigns. It does not matter how many say they are Dems or GOP voters if they don't vote. One also needs to look at how organized the party is and how enthused the voters are.

Now that Hillary's loss in the primary fight is over, how is Obama doing with these former Clinton backers who threatened to defect the party and support McCain in large numbers?

This is probably the most important part of the poll.

Of prior Clinton supporters:

69% now back Obama and 18% McCain
70% have a favorable view of Obama and 18% have an unfavorable view

Part of this is that Obama now enjoys the support of 54% of women and McCain only has the support of 33% of women.

With independents - a demographic that McCain must win in order to win the election - Obama has the support of 48% to 36% for McCain.

On favorable/unfavorable ratings:

Obama - 62% favorable - 26% unfavorable
McCain - 49% favorable - 37% unfavorable

This confuses me. I don't understand what is driving McCain's unfavorables. He won his party's nomination two months ago. No one has been running ads against him. His personal story as a war hero and maverick in the Senate should give him higher favorables. I can only assume he is getting pulled down with his party.

But I assume his favorables will will go up as he starts running ads and the press starts giving him some more attention.

Lastly, let's look at who is the best at solving problem "x" questions.

On the economy and jobs - the poll shows that Obama is favored 54% to McCain 29%
On energy policy - the poll shows Obama is favored 48% to McCain 34%
On the Iraq War - the poll shows Obama is favored 46% to McCain 40%

I think the energy numbers will tighten as gasoline prices come down (and they will before the election) and if Iraq continues to stay out of the news, that number will probably tighten as well.

As I said, this is an interesting poll because it shows some trends and answers some questions about Hillary voters. But there is no way we will see this election come down to a 15 point win for Obama. It will be much tighter than that.