It All Happens Tomorrow

It is all happening tomorrow. A twenty-month presidential campaign, the entire congress and many governors and important ballot initiatives are decided tomorrow.

One of the biggest unknowns as we sit on the eve of the election is how good the GoTV efforts will be and how long the lines will be to vote. It is estimated that 1 in 3 voters in the US has already voted. Even still, the four, five even six hour lines (and in some places ten hours) foreshadow a record turnout not seen since the 1960s. Many states will possibly see record turnouts.

I expect to see several states extend vote closing time because of long lines. Look for large turnouts tomorrow in Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida to name a few.

My final predictions on the Electoral College is

Obama - 349
McCain - 189

Popular Vote:

Obama 52.5%
McCain 46%

Here are my state by state predictions. I was conflicted on Indiana, Montana, North Carolina and Missouri. I think these are real tossups.


Alabama - McCain
Alaska - McCain
Arizona - McCain
Arkansas - McCain
California - Obama
Colorado - Obama
Connecticut - Obama
Delaware - Obama
DC - Obama
Florida - Obama
Georgia - McCain
Hawaii - Obama
Idaho - McCain
Illinois - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Iowa - Obama
Kansas - McCain
Kentucky - McCain
Louisiana - McCain
Maine - Obama
Maryland - Obama
Massachusetts - Obama
Michigan - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Mississippi - McCain
Missouri - Obama
Montana - McCain
Nebraska - McCain
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
New Jersey - Obama
New Mexico - Obama
New York - Obama
North Carolina - McCain
North Dakota - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Oklahoma - McCain
Oregon - Obama
Pennsylvania - Obama
Rhode Island - Obama
South Carolina - McCain
South Dakota - McCain
Tennessee - McCain
Texas - McCain
Utah - McCain
Vermont - Obama
Virginia - Obama
Washington - Obama
West Virginia - McCain
Wisconsin - Obama
Wyoming - McCain

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The House races will be good for the Dems. I think that the Dems will lose around three seats with the GOP losing about 37 seats for a net gain of 34 seats. I do think Murtha will hold his seat in a squeaker after the help of Bill and Hillary Clinton over the weekend.

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The Senate is more unpredictable. The Dems obviously would like to gain 9 seats to get to the magic number 60. I don't think it will happen.

Here are the senate seats that I think the Dems will pick up:

New Hampshire
Virgina
Alaska
Oregon
North Carolina
New Mexico
Colorado

I see close races in Minnesota, Georgia, Kentucky and Mississippi. There may also be a Dem in trouble in Louisiana.

I see an eight seat pickup for the Dems. The seven listed above and one of the other close races - most likely the Minnesota seat. I think Landrieu holds on to a victory giving the Dems 59 to 41 for the GOP (assuming Lieberman stays a Dem).

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The early indicators to watch are:

Virginia - If this goes for Obama - the night is almost over.

Pennsylvania - If this is an Obama state and Virgina has been called for Obama - the night is over.

Kentucky and Georgia Senate seats. If either are too close to call - or fall to the Dems, then I think the 60 seat Senate is a real possibility.

If Indiana or North Carolina go for Obama early, then I also think it is over, because that will tell us a lot about where a lot of other states will fall.

There will be at least one pickup for Obama that no one really expects. There will be no such wins for McCain.

My last prediction is that at least one network begins to say that the race is (basically) over by 9:00 pm (although they won't project the winner until 270).

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Go out and vote!

Joe