After a two year campaign and almost a $1 billion spent on the presidential campaign, we are down to the final three days.
There has been some discussion about tightening in the polls. While it is true that the national tracking polls are bouncing around a bit, one cannot grab one poll and see a one day change in that poll and draw any conclusions. Overall the race has become very stable. Right now Obama is polling nationally at a very stable 50% of the likely voters.
The state polls are more interesting. More and more states are slipping into the contested range of less than 5 points. This week we saw Georgia, North Dakota and Arizona fall into that category. These are all traditionally GOP states. No traditionally blue state is in danger of flipping this cycle.
It is worth noting that if Obama can win in Virginia or North Carolina, he would be the first non-southern Dem to carry a southern state since the south became a reliably GOP stronghold after the Civil Rights Act in the late 1960s.
I found it interesting that Obama began running ads in Georgia, North Dakota and McCain's Arizona. Many pundits thought it was Obama trying to run up the score or just plain stupid. Not so! Nationally there are still 7% of the population that are undecided. If these 7% broke substantially for McCain (and I think they will) some of these tipping point states (Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina) will end up in the McCain column on Tuesday.
Obama realizes that for McCain to make some dent in his lead, McCain needs to change the national picture at this point. He cannot do it state by state. This takes the national media giving you some favorable coverage. Given that there is a finite amount of time on these news shows, every second spent talking about Obama is one less spent talking about McCain. Late last week the media spent the better part of two crucial days talking about the 30-minute ad buy watched by 33 million people. This was two news cycles that Obama effectively bought.
Last evening every news outlet had at least one story about Obama running ads in Arizona. Again, Obama did more than run a few ads in Arizona. He was able to have his ads run on national TV as well as suck more of the oxygen out of the McCain camp.
It was interesting to read the press release put out by the McCain camp that said the ad buys in Arizona showed desperation by Obama. Apparently in the alternative universe that McCain's campign staff lives in, Obama is so desperate in his campaign that he thinks he needs to win Arizona to be to 270 EVs. Right.
I do think this race is going to tighten and McCain will get his share of these traditionally safe GOP states like Indiana and North Carolina. But I also so not see him picking up any of the John Kerry states. So that just leaves Obama to pick up one or two Bush states. Certainly between Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada and Florida, Obama can find one.
My prediction at this point are a spread of 50% Obama, 48% McCain and 2% other candidates. Obama wins 345 EVs and McCain wins 193.
Here are some state predictions that should hold the race:
Georgia - McCain
Montana - McCain
Missouri - Obama
Indiana - McCain
North Carolina - McCain
North Dakota -McCain
Florida - McCain
Ohio - Obama
Nevada - Obama
Virginia - Obama
Colorado - Obama
Pennsylvania - Obama
New Mexico - Obama
Wisconsin - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
Iowa - Obama
Michigan - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Washington - Obama
The rest of the states are safely in one camp or the other.
The Congressional race is also interesting. There will be huge pickups in the House and Senate. I won't go through the reasons again (see my earlier post). But to say the presidential race is over is one thing. The Congressional races are really over and it is blowout to the Dems. The only real question is the magic 60 seat margin in the Senate and if the Dems can get there. And I say no. I believe that the race will end up with the Dems sitting at 57 seats - three shy of the needed amount.
I really think Coleman will now win over Al Fraken (and too bad really). Franken might pull this out, but it is probably going to Coleman. If the turnout in Minnesota is higher than expected then perhaps. Unfortunately Chambliss might also win in Georgia. Too bad, because he needs to be gone for the shameful campaign he ran six years ago. But - hold on - did I see eight hour lines to vote in Georgia this week? A record turnout - especially in the African American community could raise Martin to a victory.
Liddy Dole should be ashamed of the ad she ran this last week accusing Hagan of being "Godless". Hagan who teaches Sunday School is Godless. Liddy, I think the only thing Godless is your campaign and you will pay with a resounding defeat on Tuesday. Shame on you!
Another good riddance is Ted Stevens who was convicted of seven felony charges last week and refuses to drop out of the race. You are gone too. If in some miracle you win, then you will have the shame of being the first Senator since the Civil War of being expelled from the Senate. For a Dem to win this seat in very red Alaska shows just how awful the race is for the GOP this year.
My prediction is a net pickup of 7 seats for the Dems - holding 57 seats after the election (assuming Lieberman remains in the Dem caucus after the election).
The House always holds some interest. I am now going to go out on a limb and predict a pickup of 30 seats in the House. I know this is somewhat bold, but I think these heavy turnouts we are seeing will have some big effects at the local levels and thus we will see some second and possibly third tier Dems win.
There are three seats I would like to see flip:
1. Bachman MN6 - This lady is evil. She is all that is bad in the Republican party and nothing that is good. I donated money to her opponent and I will be watching this race with interest. I hope she goes back to some local school board and ban books and insist on banning teaching evolution in public schools. I suggest she move to Kansas.
2. Murtha PA12 - This one is really sad. I have respected Murtha for his early calls for leaving Iraq. He has been steady on this for the last couple years. He had my respect until he recently called the members of his district racists and former rednecks. Come on John. You are better than this. I think you may have cost yourself your seat. There is no place in America for this. If you do hold your seat, you need to do something big to make up to your district for this. I guess you will probably hold your seat, but shame on you!
3. Mahoney FL16 - Another Dem that needs to be trounced in the election. Can anyone who won his seat from Mark Foley really have multiple affairs on his wife? get a big clue. You are too f**ing stupid to be in Congress. Your district needs to throw you out, out, out. Shame!
One final comment on voter turnout. We are seeing signs of an incredibly high turnout. Dems are pissed off at eight years of Bush, still sting from the perception that Bush stole the election on 2000 and remember that a few thousand more votes in Ohio and President Kerry would be running for his second term. We will not make that mistake twice.
I hate to admit this, but Obama is lucky, lucky, lucky. He is a perfectly polished candiate and has run a perfect campaign that will shape all future presidential campaigns. But unfortuanatly I think this country is still about 15 years away from electing a black president without any real affects of race. And that is very sad. This should be a blowout election on the caliber of Reagan's wins. But it is not. I don't buy into the concept that those who support McCain are racist. Hardly. McCain is a true American hero and an experienced politician. He deserves the support he has. But there are still a lot of people who are racist but hide behind the "Muslim" thing or the "Middle Name" thing or the "Flag Pin" thing or the "Pledge of Allegiance" thing. They can wrap their racism up in these excuses, but it is not hidden.
But Obama will be president and like the great black pioneers who have come before him he will break down this final barrier for those of color in this country. And while racism still exists and probably always will in my lifetime, after Tuesday there will not be any barriers left for minorities in this country. And if Obama is the type of president that I think he will be, we will have a whole generation of Americans that can look at the African American community with added pride and with a better understanding. I certainly look forward to the transformation that President Obama will bring to our country.
I will have one final post on Monday evening.
Joe
